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Subject: Proposed amendment to <certainty> values
The current values for the <certainty> element are accurate enough, but they provide no mechanism for distinguishing actually observed events from high-confidence forecasts. This creates a bit of dissonance, e.g., when a report of an actual earthquake that just occurred is described as "Very Likely." So I propose that the values be changed to the following: Observed - Reported as actually having occurred by a credible source. Likely - Probability > ~50% Possible - Probability < = ~50% Unlikely - Probability ~ 0 Unknown - Probability unknown This would have the effect of merging the existing "Very Likely" and "Likely" categories, thus also getting rid of that single two-word label. Alternatively, the "Observed" value could simply be added to the existing scheme. - Art
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