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Subject: [Fwd: Carnegie Mellon Disaster Mgt Workshop in the News 3/26/2010]

HI Folks,

Just wanted to pass along the little bit of press the event last Friday 
at Carnegie Mellon University Silicon Valley managed to score. I don't 
want to downplay it too much, though we certainly need more all around, 
but at least it is something in the face of the incessant babbling of 
the daily news.

However, the truly hopeful aspect of Friday's event was the fact that it 
grew so rapidly from a planned 40 attendees to over a hundred, and the 
keynote was given by Matthew Bettenhausen, Secretary of the  California 
Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA), the consolidation of the former 
State of California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) and the 
California Dept. of Homeland Security (Cal DHS), and Senator Diane 
Feinstein's office attended, too. After previously gathering support 
from Google, this event also saw Cisco and Intel attend, with Cisco 
showing off its mobile Network Emergency Response Vehicle (NERV). I had 
been angling to get NASA's Nebula Cloud capability and its mobile 
command center involved, but Cisco's small fleet of NERVs look like a 
better bet.

Regardless, there was a kind of energy I hadn't seen since before the 
web exploded. Too bad all the grad students were from India, SE Asia and 
South America, with a couple of exceptions. However, the quality of 
thinking about how to apply IT is what matters, and that was excellent.


-------- Original Message --------
Subject: 	Fwd: Carnegie Mellon in the News -- CyBlog -- 3/26/2010
Date: 	Tue, 30 Mar 2010 01:29:38 -0400
From: 	ibcomm@aol.com
To: 	rexb@starbourne.com, debmacp@gmail.com, michellearaymond@gmail.com, 
bobsmithttl@gmail.com, laurent.liscia@oasis-open.org, 
jim_wollbrinck@sjwater.com, Kenneth.Dueker@CityofPaloAlto.org, 
xirias@ebmud.com, esulliva@ebmud.com, jeet@twiki.net, peter@twiki.net, 


David C.

-----Original Message-----
From: Wendy Fong <wendy.fong@west.cmu.edu>
To: Bob Dolci <bdolci@mail.arc.nasa.gov>; PATRICK LANTHIER 
<patlan@pacbell.net>; David Coggeshall <ibcomm@aol.com>; 
<steve.r.ray@sv.cmu.edu> <steve.r.ray@sv.cmu.edu>; Brown Charles 
Cc: Richard G Power <richardpower@cmu.edu>
Sent: Mon, Mar 29, 2010 9:54 pm
Subject: Fwd: Carnegie Mellon in the News -- CyBlog -- 3/26/2010

Thanks to Richard Power for his article about our workshop!   .. Wendy

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: *TECHMarketNews* <news@techmarket.com <mailto:news@techmarket.com>>
Date: Mon, Mar 29, 2010 at 5:21 PM
Subject: Carnegie Mellon in the News -- CyBlog -- 3/26/2010
To: Jeannie Stamberger <jeannie.stamberger@gmail.com 
<mailto:jeannie.stamberger@gmail.com>>, Martin Griss 
<martin.griss@sv.cmu.edu <mailto:martin.griss@sv.cmu.edu>>, Nichole 
Dwyer <nichole.dwyer@sv.cmu.edu <mailto:nichole.dwyer@sv.cmu.edu>>, 
Sylvia Leong <sylvia.leong@sv.cmu.edu <mailto:sylvia.leong@sv.cmu.edu>>, 
Wendy Fong <wendy.fong@sv.cmu.edu <mailto:wendy.fong@sv.cmu.edu>>
Cc: Amy Louie <alouie@techmarket.com <mailto:alouie@techmarket.com>>, 
Cara Porchia <cara.porchia@gmail.com <mailto:cara.porchia@gmail.com>>, 
Dottie O'Rourke <dorourke@techmarket.com 
<mailto:dorourke@techmarket.com>>, Irene Chun <ichun@techmarket.com 
<mailto:ichun@techmarket.com>>, Steve Wright 
<steve.wright@techmarket.com <mailto:steve.wright@techmarket.com>>, 
Susan D'Elia <susan.delia@techmarket.com 

      Not a Moment to Soon ... Carnegie Mellon Silicon Valley Launches
      Disaster Management Initiative

Friday, March 26, 2010


Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami (2004) 
of the major cities of the West Coast of the //United States// are at 
risk from earthquakes similar to what just happened in //Chile//. The 
largest possible earthquake in //California// would be just above 
magnitude 8. But millions of people would be right on top of the shaking 
... When we have a large earthquake, we will face issues similar to what 
is happening in Chile right now ... The long duration of shaking in the 
largest earthquakes have a bigger impact on bridges, pipelines and large 
structures. Loss of utilities can last for months because the damage is 
so extensive that the only solution is to create a completely new system 
... Without utilities and with damage to a million buildings, 
businesses, especially small businesses, cannot reopen and the economic 
consequences continue to grow. /Lucy Jones, U.S.G.S., *"*Are We Prepared 
for an 8.8 Quake?," New York Times, 3-29-10 

*Not a Moment to Soon ... Carnegie Mellon Silicon Valley Launches 
Disaster Management Initiative**

*By Richard Power <http://www.cylab.cmu.edu/about/bio_power.html>**

Information and information systems have a pivotal role in crisis and 
catastrophe; not only are they highly vulnerable to such disruptions, 
but they are also vital to crisis management, business continuity and 
disaster recovery. And today, you have to factor in even more 
complexity, because dynamic, new elements such as social media, smart 
phones and crowd-sourcing not only offer the opportunity to empower the 
populace to participate in recovery and relief efforts, they also 
confront emergency response planners with the challenge of processing 
and prioritizing an immense influx of hitherto unavailable information.

Meanwhile, in the 21st Century, the fields of crisis management, 
business continuity and disaster recovery are taking on a new 
significance and a new urgency at all levels -- personal, organizational 
and societal (or at least they should be). As I say in my Intelligence 
Briefings, the 20th Century model for crisis management, business 
continuity and disaster recovery was "something bad might happen someday 
and if it does this is what we will do," but the 21st Century model 
should be "multiple bad things will occur, quite possibly 
simultaneously, and when they do, this is how we will adapt and respond."
Hurriance Katrina (2005) <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina>
Consider Munich Re's <http://www.munichre.com/en/homepage/default.aspx> 
annual report on the global impact of natural disasters.

The 2009 report 
was heralded as "good news." The top ten 2009 events combined resulted 
in less 10,000 deaths, and total economic losses were valued at only $50 
billion (BTW, the USA was effected by four of the top ten events in 
terms of economic losses); as contrasted with the 2008 report 
which cited 220,000 deaths (200,000 in Cyclone Nargis and the Sichuan 
Earthquake alone) and economic losses of approximately $200 billion. And 
although 2009 was not as bad as 2008, the trend line since 1950, and 
especially over the last decade, is on a steep curve. There is no 
mystery to this increasing intensity. The planet's exploding population 
coupled with the increasingly stressed infrastructures of the planet's 
mega-cities; and yes, despite the vehement denialism of a dwindling few, 
extreme weather brought on by the rapid acceleration of global climate 
change is already having a major impact.
Sichuan Earthquake (2008) 
What do you think Munich Re's report for 2010 will look like?

It is only March, and we have already seen devastating earthquakes in 
Haiti (over 200,000 dead and hundreds of thousands more homeless) and 
the 8.8 magnitude quake in Chile, which plunged 93% of the country into 
a prolonged blackout, and led to tsunami warnings in over 50 other nations.

But perhaps more to the point, what does it all mean to you personally, 
to your loved ones, to to your enterprise, to your community, and to 
your country?

The clearing of the rubble in Haiti will take 1,000 trucks 1,000 days.

The quake that hit Chile less than one month later shifted the earth's 
and shortened our day by 1.26 microseconds. (Likewise, the 2004 Indian 
Ocean earthquake, also shifted the axis and shortened our day, by 6.8 

How much would an 8.8 earthquake shift the axis of your own individual 
world? What would you do if your headquarters or your production center 
were located in a disaster zone where it was projected it would take 
1,000 trucks 1,000 days to clear the rubble 
What would the first twenty minutes of the aftermath look like for you? 
What would the first twenty hours of the aftermath look like to you? 
What about the first twenty days? Where would you begin? What have you 
done to prepare in any way?

My personal interest in crisis management, business continuity and 
disaster recovery has been on a steep arc of its own, since the late 
1990s, when I started looking at the likely impact of climate change and 
related sustainability crises on the overall risk and threat matrix for 
business and government, and it become very personal after I directed a 
24x7 response to the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami for a global 
enterprise of 100,000+ people in 100+ countries. (See A Corporate 
Security Strategy for Coping with the Climate Crisis 

So I was delighted to find myself in the front row at the NASA AMES 
Convention Center for the launch of Carnegie Mellon Silicon Valley's 
Disaster Management Initiative (DMI) 

Martin Griss 
Director of the Carnegie Mellon Silicon Valley 
<http://www.cmu.edu/silicon-valley/> and the CyLab Mobility Research 
Center <http://www.cylab.cmu.edu/research/center-mrc.html>, has a vision 
of the DMI as a collaboration "to prepare the SF bay area for a 
coordinated response to a major multi-jurisdictional incident, using 
open technologies and software."

In articulating Carnegie Mellon's critical contributions to the DMI, 
Griss stressed establishing relationships, submitting proposals and 
managing grants, creating and launching collaborative events, and 
participating in research into technical components of the DMI, such as 
sensors, devices, communications infrastructure, situational models, 
common operating picture, information reporting and sharing, system 
testing, etc.

Numerous speakers from diverse organizations led segments of DMI workshop.

Mathhew Bettenhaunsen, Secretary of the California Emergency Management 
Agency (CalEMA) 
gave a sobering keynote, admonishing those who have not taken personal 
responsibility for preparing themselves, their families and their 
organizations for the inevitable, and exhorting those present to make 
haste in their efforts to developing the kind of coordinated, 21st 
Century emergency response articulated by Griss.

David Oppenheimer, Chief of the Northern California Seismic Network 
Earthquake Hazards Team of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 
<http://quake.usgs.gov/>, spoke on an earthquake early warning system 
being developed.

The system is based on hundreds of hundreds of monitoring stations 
throughout the state, and is predicated on the span of a few seconds 
between the p wave and the s wave of an oncoming earthquake 
<http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=113877510>. In 
that space, it is possible determine the location and the magnitude of 
an earthquake.

Imagine what could be done with that few seconds (maybe as many as five 
or ten seconds depending how far you are from the epicenter)? Could you 
broadcast a warning within one second? Could you bring elevators and 
trains to a safe stop? Could you provide for an orderly transition in 
air traffic control? What else could you do? Yes, like much of what was 
explored in the DMI workshop, this extraordinary capability brings both 
opportunities and challenges.
Pacific Ring of Fire <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Ring_of_Fire>
Xavier j. Irias, Director of Engineering and Construction for East Bay 
Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) <http://www.ebmud.com/> spoke on how 
his critical infrastructure provider is coming to grips with the inevitable.

Imagine having to develop a crisis management, business continuity and 
disaster recovery strategy for an entity consisting of four thousand 
miles of pipe, thirty dams, four hundred major facilities, and serving 
over four million people. Oh yes, and "everything has been placed right 
along the fault," Irias remarked, "to make it easy to find," and 
anything not built along a fault line has been situation in "a 
liquefaction zone."

"There is not a single facility immune to damage," he added.

Seismic Modeling is not enough, Irias observed, to be truly useful, 
model results must be integrated with real-time field data; so EBMUD is 
using USGS's open-source Shakecast 
<http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/software/shakecast/> together with 
its own open source disaster management application Marconi in an open 
technology approach to enhancing the Common Operating Picture; and it is 
this Common Operating Picture that enable a prompt and appropriate response.

"Shakecast and Marconi integration exemplifies the [open technology] 
concept," Irias said, "both are freely available and applicable worldwide."

Let's say an earthquake hits at 3 a.m., and by 3:30 a.m., key personnel 
arrive at their district operation centers. Within an hour, the sites to 
be inspected can be prioritized based on the information available 
through Shakecast and Marconi, and by 5:00 a.m., the highest priority 
inspections could be completed.
Loma Prieta Earthquake (1989) 
Robert Dolci, Chief of Protective Services and Director of Emergency 
Services for NASA AMES <http://pso.arc.nasa.gov/>, spoke on the daunting 
challenges that will confront the Next Generation Emergency Operations 
Center (EOC).

"Let's assume a regional Joint Operations Command (JOC) staffed with 
local, state and federal personnel, and assume the worst case scenario, 
e.g., 7.8 earthquake on the Hayward fault ..." This JOC EOC would be 
interfating with the EOCs of nine counties, forty-five cities, two 
hundred and fifty corporations, different State entities, thousands of 
incident command posts, ten commodity distribution centers, hundreds of 
shelters ... plus, at the Federal level, F.E.M.A., DoJ, DHS, DoD, DoT, 
GSA and "at least ten other agencies," ... plus emergency response teams 
from other states, volunteers from non-profits and faith-based 
organizations like the Red Cross and the Salvation Army, hospitals, news 
media (both local and national), and of course, the general public, and 
all of them reporting and making requests in real-time.

"From strategic level, the regional JOC/EOC of the future will need to 
be aware of all significant events, effectively gather and disseminate 
information, effectively communicate across all levels, etc. ... as many 
as five thousand command elements will be reporting up to and requesting 
support from that regional JOC/EOC ... There will have to be food, 
shelter, etc. for the responders, as well as the populace ...

Like the other presenters, Dolci emphasized the need for open technology 
approaches to enhancing the Common Operating Picture.

"If the next generation JOC/EOC cannot keep up with it all," he quipped, 
it will be a disaster."
Cyclone Nargis (2008) <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Nargis>
Eric Rasmussen <http://instedd.org/executiveteam>, CEO of InSTEDD 
<http://instedd.org/> also spoke. InSTEDD is an innovation lab and 
capacity building resource, which is working with governments and NGOs 
in crisis areas from Haiti to the Mekong Delta.

Rasmussen spoke on some of the "free and open source" technologies his 
team has developed to empower "seamless and reliable collaboration" in 
the field:

*Geochat:*"A unified mobile communications service designed specifically 
to enable self-organizing group communications in the developing world. 
The service lets mobile phone users broadcast location-based alerts, 
report on their situation, and coordinate around events as they unfold, 
linking field, headquarters, and the local community in a real-time, 
interactive conversation visualized on the surface of a map."

*Riff:*"An interactive decision support environment that combines the 
power of virtual teams of human experts and advanced analytic, 
machine-learning, and visualization services to allow its users to 
collaborate around streams of information to detect, characterize, and 
respond sooner to emerging events."

*Mesh4X:*"An adaptive data integration platform designed to break down 
barriers to information flow, allowing organizations and individuals to 
share awareness reliably, selectively, and securely, with anyone, using 
any device, from any database, over any network. Using Mesh4x, every 
user knows what every other user knows. When a disaster relief worker 
notes in a spreadsheet that beds are available in a local shelter, that 
piece of information is automatically synchronized to all of the 
different websites, PDAs, databases, and maps of every organization 
cooperating in the response."

*Nuntium:* A messaging flow management system that "allows applications 
to send and receive all type of messages," e.g., sms, emails and twitter 
direct messages.

Carnegie Mellon Silicon Valley's impressive list DMI collaborators includes:
NASA <http://www.nasa.gov/>
Golden Gate Safety Network and MapLab
We have established a partnership with
California Emergency Management Agency (Cal-EMA) <http://www.oes.ca.gov/>
TWiki, Inc. <http://twiki.net/>
Wireless Communications Alliance (WCA) <http://wca.org/> and the WCA's 
emergency Communications Leadership & Innovation Center (eCLIC) 
Clearwire <http://www.clearwire.com/>
NASA Ames Research Center Disaster Assistance and Rescue Team (DART) 
UNISYS <http://www.unisys.com/unisys/>
Airship Earth Corporation (AEC) 
TechNet <http://www.technet.org/>

To the deepen the experience of the participants, Carnegie Mellon 
Silicon Valley followed up the DMI Workshop with a weekend-long Crisis 
Camp <http://www.cmu.edu/silicon-valley/dmi/crisiscamp/index.html>

Stay tuned for more news of this compelling initiative as it progresses.
Krakatoa (1883) <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakatoa>

Rex Brooks
President, CEO
Starbourne Communications Design
GeoAddress: 1361-A Addison
Berkeley, CA 94702
Tel: 510-898-0670

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