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Subject: RE: [emix] What about Price Look-ahead.
Phil and Jeremy both support forward prices for emix as do I. To minimize manipulation the forward prices need to be actual quotes to buy or to sell back at known prices from competitive or regulated suppliers. Prices from open, supervised competitive markets such as ISOs and exchanges are also less subject to manipulation. However any forecast without an offer to sell or buy at that price is suspect.
In emix we should provide a way for a customer to access multiple suppliers and markets with binding quotes. (I think our current specification does this.) If we facilitate communication of forecasts these forecasts should be clearly distinguished from quotes. Anything to prevent manipulation beyond this is likely outside our scope.
A reason (use case) for binding forward quotes is as follows: if I am quoted high forward prices in the afternoon because of high forecast temperatures and low wind generation, then I can buy lower price power in the morning to pre-cool my building and I can pay for this by selling back at these high afternoon prices from my forward long-term contract position. This will enable me to lock in the savings. If all I have is a forecast of high afternoon prices and the prices drop becuase of weather changes or manipulation of the forecast, then I may actually incur higher costs becuase of pre cooling than if I had cooled in the afternoon.
Forward quotes and transactions will also help stabilize the market. If in the above use case a large number of customers increase morning cooling and decrease afternoon cooling the current and forward price quotes will change as the market reaches a new equilibrium. However, those customers who act on the forward prices to drive the market toward this new equilibrium will have locked in their gains. This will promote market participation and stability. With automation forward such forward contracting has low overhead.
Additionally it is well known that forward contracting reduces the potential profits to market manipulators in comparison to pure spot markets because the amount actually transacted in each opportunity to transact in forward markets is much smaller than in pure spot markets.
Edward G. Cazalet, Ph.D.
101 First Street, Suite 552
Los Altos, CA 94022
The look ahead would be important to C&I systems of the near future. Most product roadmaps have them consuming forward prices, then setting up hourly controls strategy for the subsequent 24 hours. There are other market oriented interactions around that, but these come via different, though related, systems. The BAS component would be a pretty mechanical reaction to prices, driven by an embedded model of some kind.
From: Toby Considine [mailto:email@example.com] On
Behalf Of Toby Considine
Assume we have a basic Emix done. Does the specification include a look-ahead?
This is a market interaction pattern that properly belongs in EnergyInterop
Appliances and SEP 2.0 should need no more than EMIX. If Appliances and SEP need price look-ahead, than it goes into EMIX
"Energy and persistence conquer all things." -- Benjamin Franklin