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Subject: [humanmarkup] Re: [h-anim] [Fwd: Using Humans as a Computer Model]
of interest. also interesting to twist this idea a bit and consider
agent-based h-anim applications as driving exemplars in such a paradigm.
all the best, Don
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White paper available at
http://www.research.ibm.com/autonomic/manifesto/autonomic_computing.pdf
all the best, Don
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Don Brutzman Naval Postgraduate School, Code UW/Br Root 200 work 831.656.2149
Monterey California 93943-5000 USA fax 831.656.3679
Virtual worlds/underwater robots/Internet http://web.nps.navy.mil/~brutzman
October 15, 2001
Using Humans as a Computer Model
By STEVE LOHR
HINK of it as computing's crisis of complexity, revisited.
For more than three decades, the big advances in computing have soon brought new headaches. The initial steps ahead are typically in hardware — processors, storage and networks — and the headaches are manifested in software.
It is software that is the medium for doing all the new things in computing that hardware makes possible — whether simple numeric calculations or increasingly sophisticated functions like symbolic processing, graphics, simulations, artificial intelligence and so on.
In computing, opportunity breeds complexity. And complexity begets systems that can be buggy, unreliable and difficult to manage.
This cycle of challenge became apparent shortly after the I.B.M. (news/quote) 360 mainframe, introduced in 1964, brought computing into the mainstream of corporate and government life. In 1968, NATO sponsored a conference prompted by concerns that the "software crisis" at the time posed a threat to the economic health and military readiness of the West.
Training, engineering and new software and hardware tools helped the computing community cope with the crisis of the late 1960's. But as Frederick P. Brooks Jr., one of the architects of the I.B.M. 360, observed, "Complexity is the business we are in, and complexity is what limits us."
Paul M. Horn, a senior vice president who oversees the research labs at I.B.M., says the time is ripe for an assault on the ever-increasing complexity of computing in the Internet era, with its global networks and proliferation of digital devices. "We have a growing crisis on our hands," he said.
Mr. Horn hopes to do something about it. Starting today, at the Agenda conference in Scottsdale, Ariz., I.B.M. will begin distributing 75,000 copies of a 39-page paper written by Mr. Horn, in which he calls the current version of the complexity problem the industry's "next grand challenge."
The paper will be distributed to computer science researchers in universities, national labs and companies worldwide. I.B.M. is also making a commitment to underwrite 50 research projects at universities the next three to five years to take on the complexity challenge — millions of dollars of research grants.
Mr. Horn's paper is intended partly as a call to action for researchers and the industry, but it also points toward a path for solving the problem. He calls it "autonomic computing." It is a biological metaphor suggesting a systemic approach to attaining a higher level of automation in computing. Just as a person's autonomic nervous system automatically handles all kinds basic functions — the heart rate, breathing and digestion, for example — in response to changing conditions, so, too, should computer systems, according to Mr. Horn.
The human body "does all this without any conscious recognition or effort on your part," he writes. "This allows you to think about what you want to do and not how you'll do it: you can make a mad dash for the train without having to calculate how much faster to breathe and pump your heart."
Similarly, Mr. Horn says, the way to handle the complexity problem is to create computer systems and software that can respond to changes in the digital environment, so the systems can adapt, heal themselves and protect themselves. Only then, he adds, will the need be reduced for constant human maintenance, fixing and debugging of computer systems.
His work with I.B.M.'s fast-growing services business, Mr. Horn said, set him to thinking deeply about the complexity issue. The services arm of I.B.M., he notes, has been growing by about 15,000 people a year the last five years. "They're all managing the complexity we've created in the information technology industry," he said in an interview. "The only way to get efficiency gains in information technology is to take some of the people out."
Even with the industry's current slowdown, the demand for information technology workers is expected to grow by more than 100 percent over the next six years. "There just aren't enough skilled people," Mr. Horn said. "If we don't do something, we'll be a services industry, and the industry won't grow. We're already headed in that direction."
Mr. Horn insists that no one company can handle the complexity challenge on its own, and that doing so will take research efforts over the next 5 to 10 years in areas like adaptive algorithms for software agents, self-healing server computers, artificial intelligence and control theory. Still, many of these are fields in which I.B.M. has its own research projects under way.
"We're certainly trying to push academic research in this direction," Mr. Horn said, "because we think it's an important direction."
I.B.M. will begin showing its autonomic computing vision to the rest of the industry this week. A handful of academic computer scientists have already seen Mr. Horn's paper. They see I.B.M.'s initiative as an endorsement of ambitious computer science research in a variety of fields. Ben Kuipers, a computer scientist at the University of Texas, has been conducting research aimed at building "common sense knowledge" into software agents — one of the technologies needed if autonomic computing is to become a reality someday.
At the University of California at Berkeley, John Kubiatowicz has been researching "introspective computing," or systems that constantly monitor themselves and adapt to changes in the computing environment.
Mr. Kubiatowicz says that the time is right for research efforts of the kind I.B.M. is championing, both because complexity is indeed a growing problem and, as in the past, the steady gains in hardware — processing power and storage — have opened the door to addressing the challenge.
"We suddenly have the resources to do this," he said.
Copyright 2001 The New York Times Company | Privacy Information
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Autonomic computing -- IT challenged to reduce complexity
Paul Horn, senior vice president of IBM Research, has called upon the information technology industry and academic community to rally around the next wave in computing -- autonomic computing.
He also released a publication that detailed the need, "Autonomic Computing: IBM's Perspective on the State of Information Technology."
Horn told the Agenda conference that computing should work more like our autonomic nervous system, which regulates the body's basic functions without a person being aware. For instance, when you run to catch a train, you don't need to consciously decide to excrete adrenaline, increase your oxygen intake or increase your heart rate.
Your autonomic nervous system does it for you.
IBM believes that if the IT industry wants to take computing to the next revolutionary level, computers must demonstrate an ability to regulate and manage themselves similar to the autonomic nervous system. Computer systems are too complex, and there are simply too many operations taking place for human administrators to oversee.
At current rates of expansion, there will not be enough skilled IT people to keep the world's computing systems running. Unfilled IT jobs in the United States alone number in the hundreds of thousands. Even in uncertain economic times, demand for skilled IT workers is expected to increase by more than 100 percent in the next six years.
IBM initiatives such as eLiza, e-sourcing and systems management software from Tivoli are making strides towards creating the future of autonomic computing. So are industry and academic efforts in the area of grid computing.
But disparate components won't be enough. Autonomic computing calls for a systemic approach that unites those initiatives and embraces open standards to liberate the potential of machines from the complexity trap.
Horn said the days of proprietary solutions are over. He promised that IBM will lead the charge into the next age of computing through grants, the support of open standards and the collaboration of businesses, academia and the government.
See also
Autonomic computing
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