[emergency] Re: [emergency-comment] Proposed amendment to<certainty> values

[Art Botterell <acb@incident.com>]

Those were my own suggestions, based on experience in collaboration 
with others, admittedly.  They were submitted for compilation and 
consideration at the appropriate time, right along with Bob Wyman's. 
(And as soon as Bob started responding to my posts I moved that 
dialog onto this list, although your cross-post slipped in first.)

In passing I also wanted to illustrate that, while criticism is easy, 
it helps when proponents back up their comments with actual 
suggestions about how to improve things.  (As Bob did with his 
registry suggestion, with which I heartily concur.)

- Art


At 10:07 PM -0500 3/28/04, R. Allen Wyke wrote:
>Are these your comments, or Public Comments (as they came across the 
>Public list)? If yours, or you are simply passing on "public 
>comments" that will be represented as yours (ie: you will serve as 
>the person from which the comment was originally from in the TC), 
>then please post on the regular list. If they are from a person in 
>the public who wants to be identified as the source, then they 
>should make the post.
>
>The public list is for "members of the public", while members of the 
>TC should use the regular list. Same comment as with your post 
>regarding <category> as well. Since you are a member of the TC, I 
>will go ahead and forward to the regular list.
>
>Allen
>
>On Mar 28, 2004, at 5:16 PM, Art Botterell wrote:
>
>>The current values for the <certainty> element are accurate enough, 
>>but they provide no mechanism for distinguishing actually observed 
>>events from high-confidence forecasts.  This creates a bit of 
>>dissonance, e.g., when a report of an actual earthquake that just 
>>occurred is described as "Very Likely."  So I propose that the 
>>values be changed to the following:
>>
>>	Observed - Reported as actually having occurred by a credible source.
>>	Likely - Probability > ~50%
>>	Possible - Probability < = ~50%
>>	Unlikely - Probability ~ 0
>>	Unknown - Probability unknown
>>
>>This would have the effect of merging the existing "Very Likely" 
>>and "Likely" categories, thus also getting rid of that single 
>>two-word label.
>>
>>Alternatively, the "Observed" value could simply be added to the 
>>existing scheme.
>>
>>- Art
>>
>>
>>
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>
>
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