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Subject: RE: [huml] Gov Artcle, State Dept Use Case Thoughts
Not good.
1. HumanML can't be applied to the live events or people. Only to data
or observations about them. Thus it can be used as a basis for annotating
reports, literature, even live video feed, but can't be applied to people.
2. It gathers data but leaves interpretations to others. To build up the
interpretations, one needs a large body of evidentiary work such as can
be found in the literature of a culture.
3. A body of evidence as such must account for expected and anomalous
results. For example, it has been asserted that some of the terrorist behavior
in the Middle East is not a traditional or 'normal' behavior for this culture. It
has aspects of Western tainting, specifically, the European train of thought
that took form in this century with the writings of Heidegger, Nietzche, etc.
and imported into the Middle East during the early part of the century when
the British and French held these territories. Regardless of the position
one takes on this argument, it opens the possibility that the analysis of
currernt events based on cultural inheritance may be orders of magnitude
more complex and less predictive than your case studies assert.
The problem of detecting noise is in the definition of what is noise,
what is signal, and which signals if any are pertinent to the analysis
from which the prediction is made. The problem of purely logical
systems or ontologies is ignoring that human though and communication
begin with abductive then inductive and only then, deductive tools.
This makes history a dicey source of event prediction.
For HumanML to make a difference, the tools must limit analysis and
predictions to relatively local and short temporal regimes. They will
not of necessity help state department policy analysis unless they
can provide a very large body of evidence. HumanML translators can
be helpful, but in the time it takes to read the screen, the soldier or
diplomat is already dead. So, even local and short regimes are
difficult to achieve.
I believe you are taking on a task which even it it has high visibility
will not result in funding without apriori results being demonstrated.
len
-----Original Message-----
From: Rex Brooks [mailto:rexb@starbourne.com]
Sent: Monday, August 11, 2003 9:57 AM
To: huml@lists.oasis-open.org; humanorg@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [huml] Gov Artcle, State Dept Use Case Thoughts
Hi Everyone,
I'm posting this to the humanorg list as well as the OASIS TC list because I can't be sure that the TC list will work with the rest of the OASIS web infrastructure down from the hack attacks Karl notified us about Friday.
Russell and I finished up work on the article aimed at involving the largest software tech companies in using HumanML and he has suggested we carry on with an article aimed at government. He and I have only begun feeling our way toward a focus for this and I have had it on my back burner over the weekend.
Basically I have concentrated lately on the State Department Use Cases I promised Ranjeeth, in response to his suggestion months ago that this was the most likely target to produce funding, which our non-profit needs. I also suspect that what Ranjeeth really needs and wants, almost more than funding, is to attract someone capable of taking on the Conflict Resolution Subcommittee tasks that, like any such subcommittee tasks when combined with chairing the TC, or any other TC or subcommittee, tends to stretch anyone to their limits.
I happen to know this quite well, and face a similar situation. However, I have to put that concern even farther into the background when I start trying to focus on a topic to write on with respect to practical and beneficial applications of HumanML.
I mention all this because it illustrates the problems inherent in simply getting down to work on something, not just HumanML, Conflict Resolution, or writing an article. It always becomes a matter of priorities. Somehow, this train of thought, with the spur of frustration from the complete lack of any response to those State Dept Use Cases on which I spun my wheels a bit in the last couple of weeks, led to a surprising conclusion.
No one is interested.
Duh? I'm a wee bit slow sometimes, but I eventually get it.
Okay, well the obvious thing is, as the Doctor says when told it hurts to do something, "Don't DO that!"
But what happens when one is simply not put together to accept this obvious conclusion? If you're me, you put it on the back burner and let it cook some more.
It did that and it came back with another surprise, "Duh?"
Why am I saying that so much today, I thought. Like I said, I'm a little slow sometimes. It occurred to me that I had something in common with the very policies I find chafing in my Iraq-based Use Cases. I was only offering pat solutions:
"Hang in there, it takes time, just do what I say and everything will be all right. "
In my case, I was saying, "... just add HumanML interpreters and translators, and it will get better, eventually."
And what is there to say to that?
Okay. So ... ?
Like I said, "Duh?"
Well, hopefully, I'll get it someday. In the meantime what I think is that, we don't have HumanML Interpreters and Translators, and, in fact, we don't have a set of secondary vocabularies to use in such work.
In fact, we don't have people interested in building those secondary vocabularies who have the time and energy and resources to do that, let alone specialize in Iraqi-specific subcultures of Kurdish, Sunni and Shia tribal communities within the larger culture of the "Islamic" world, a nation-state artifact of WWI called Iraq and handed a Monarchy of all the various kinds of governmental options back in THAT day, and today's "Arab Street." And that doesn't even start to account for little recent events like a war to remove the Hussein Bathyist Regime, with or without WMD.
Okay. So ... ?
How about this:
"Can we turn this thing on its head, and start using the situation as it is as an opportunity to begin building that Iraqi-specific subcultural profile/module?
Can we use THAT as the model for attempting to illicit the active participation of Iraqis and our own cultural anthropologists, linguists and social welfare specialists to help gather relevant information and help build that information base?
Can we make the case that to make this come about we happen to able to PAY hard currency that we will be spending regardless, (perhaps uselessly?) which may actually HELP their economy (and maybe some infinitesimal part of ours) get moving again?"
Is it possible to set aside our arrogance for a while, stop handing out top-down, take it or leave it, solutions from our own molds? (Which happens to go for me, too, gosh darn it!)
What do you think the chances are?
Ciao for Niao,Rex
--Rex Brooks
GeoAddress: 1361-A Addison, Berkeley, CA, 94702 USA, Earth
W3Address: http://www.starbourne.com
Email: rexb@starbourne.comTel: 510-849-2309Fax: By Request
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